Pre-Harvest Wheat Yield Prediction Using Agrometeorological Indices forDifferent Regions of Kordestan Province, Iran

Research Journal of Environmental Sciences 2 (4): 275-280, 2008

The aim of this study was to establish the relationships between wheat yield andmeteorological variables together with agrometeorological indices for prediction of wheatyield for different regions of Kordestan province, Iran. Wheat prediction was carried outusing different meteorological variables as well as agrometeorological indices in differentregions of Kordestan province, Iran including Sanandaj, Ghorveh and Bijar districts for theyears 2004-05 and 2005-06. On the basis of correlation coefficients, standard error of theestimates and relative deviations of the predicted yield from actual yield using differentstatistical models, the best subset of agrometeorological indices were selected including dailyminimum temperature (Trail), accumulated difference of maximum and minimumtemperatures (TD), accumulated Photothermal Units (PTU) and Sunshine Hours (SH). Theresults revealed that in Sanandaj district, yield prediction was performed two months inadvance before harvesting time which was coincide with end of the second active vegetativestage after dormancy stage of wheat (March 27th to May 31st). For Ghorveh district, yieldprediction was done one month before harvesting time which was at the end of reproductivestage of wheat (May 22nd to June 20th). In Bijar district, although there was a significantrelationship between yield and agrometeorological variables but a high relative deviationbetween predicted and actual yields exists. Therefore, none of the suggested models wasused for Bijar district. It can be concluded that in the final statistical models, 68% of wheatyield variability was accounted for variation in the above agrometeorological indices forSanandaj and Ghorveh districts.

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